SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 PM CST Tue Dec 15 2020

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight over the central
Gulf Coast region.

...Discussion...

No significant changes have been made to previous forecast.

..Dial.. 12/15/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Tue Dec 15 2020/

...Southeast LA...
A large upper trough is digging across the central/southern Plains
today, with low-level cyclogenesis expected later today and tonight
over the western Gulf of Mexico.  Considerable thunderstorm activity
is forecast to occur off the TX/LA coast late tonight as the surface
low tracks near the coast.  One or two of the warm-sector storms
could approach the Delta region of southeast LA after midnight. 
While there would be some conditional risk of damaging winds or a
brief tornado with this activity, the very small temporal/areal
window of opportunity suggests the overall risk is less than 5%.

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