SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Tue Dec 15 2020

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z


A few strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of
coastal North Carolina and the Gulf coastal areas of the northern
Florida Peninsula.


Strong mid-level height falls will spread across the
southern/central Appalachians later today as a 100kt 500mb speed max
translates across northern GA into western NC. This feature is
currently located over the lower MS Valley, and in response a weak
surface low is expected to approach the FL Panhandle by mid day. A
brief opportunity for strong/locally severe storms will be noted
with the Gulf-moisture surge as weak buoyancy spreads inland ahead
of the initial surface low. Strengthening wind fields and
near-surface based instability suggest some threat for damaging
winds, and perhaps a tornado with any supercells.

Of more concern will be the Atlantic-moisture surge expected across
coastal NC. Latest model guidance suggests a surface low will
develop off the SC Coast early then lift north into eastern NC by
18z. Very strong wind fields will result in shear profiles favorable
for supercells and possible tornadoes. NAM forecast sounding for HAT
at 21z exhibits ~1200 J/kg SBCAPE just prior to low-level flow
veering to the southwest. While the storm mode will likely be
multi-faceted, with clusters and possible line segments, supercells
along with some tornado threat will be noted, especially across the
Outer Banks where buoyancy will be greatest.

..Darrow/Cook.. 12/16/2020

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