SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 AM CST Wed Dec 16 2020

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z


A corridor from eastern Texas into portions of the lower Mississippi
Valley may see some weak thunderstorm activity late Friday night.

Little change to the general mid/upper flow regime is expected from
Thursday into Friday.  With stable conditions initially prevalent,
this will probably be maintained across most areas through the

However, boundary-layer moistening ongoing across the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico early Friday likely will continue, with an
increasingly moist southerly return flow developing across and
inland of the northwestern Gulf coast Friday through Friday night.  

This is expected to occur as one short wave trough, within the main
belt of westerlies impacting the U.S., progresses east of the
southern Rockies.

Models indicate that this trough will be accompanied by a 60-80 kt
cyclonic, southwesterly mid-level jet across the southern Great
Plains.  To the equatorward side of this jet, relatively warm and
warming air aloft seems likely to initially cap the low-level
moisture return, which is also expected to be elevated above a
residual near-surface stable layer inland of the Gulf coast.  While
the stronger mid/upper support for ascent will remain displaced well
to the north of the Gulf coast (across the central Great Plains into
the middle Mississippi Valley), it does appear that weak mid-level
cooling may begin to overspread the moistening southerly return flow
by late Friday night.  This may yield scattered weak thunderstorm
activity from northeast Texas toward the Mississippi Delta, and
perhaps southward into upper Texas coastal areas, by 12Z Saturday.

..Kerr.. 12/16/2020

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