SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 AM CST Wed Dec 16 2020 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A corridor from eastern Texas into portions of the lower Mississippi Valley may see some weak thunderstorm activity late Friday night. ...Discussion... Little change to the general mid/upper flow regime is expected from Thursday into Friday. With stable conditions initially prevalent, this will probably be maintained across most areas through the period. However, boundary-layer moistening ongoing across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico early Friday likely will continue, with an increasingly moist southerly return flow developing across and inland of the northwestern Gulf coast Friday through Friday night. This is expected to occur as one short wave trough, within the main belt of westerlies impacting the U.S., progresses east of the southern Rockies. Models indicate that this trough will be accompanied by a 60-80 kt cyclonic, southwesterly mid-level jet across the southern Great Plains. To the equatorward side of this jet, relatively warm and warming air aloft seems likely to initially cap the low-level moisture return, which is also expected to be elevated above a residual near-surface stable layer inland of the Gulf coast. While the stronger mid/upper support for ascent will remain displaced well to the north of the Gulf coast (across the central Great Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley), it does appear that weak mid-level cooling may begin to overspread the moistening southerly return flow by late Friday night. This may yield scattered weak thunderstorm activity from northeast Texas toward the Mississippi Delta, and perhaps southward into upper Texas coastal areas, by 12Z Saturday. ..Kerr.. 12/16/2020
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