SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 AM CST Wed Dec 16 2020

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...

CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRAPHIC ERROR

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of coastal North
Carolina and west-central Florida.

...NC...
An intense shortwave trough is tracking across the lower MS and TN
valleys today, with large-scale forcing overspreading much of the
southeast US.  Surface cyclogenesis is currently occurring off the
SC/NC coast.  Latest radar loop shows a line of showers and
thunderstorms developing in vicinity of the surface low/warm front. 
These storms are expected to track northward today and affect the
coastal counties of eastern NC.  Most model solutions keep
surface-based CAPE over the Sound and Outer Banks.  Nevertheless,
strong vertical shear may support supercell structures in this
activity, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts or a brief
tornado.  This threat should end by 23z as storms move out to sea.

...FL...
Scattered thunderstorms are occurring this morning over the
northeast Gulf of Mexico, along and ahead of an approaching cold
front.  There is considerable doubt that storms can maintain this
strength as they move ashore into west-central FL this afternoon,
due to the limited moisture/instability over that region.  While a
storm or two may produce gusty winds, the overall severe threat
appears marginal.

..Hart.. 12/16/2020

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