SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z


The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the
U.S., Saturday through Saturday night.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A pair shortwave troughs, one initially extending across the Upper
Midwest and the other extending from south-central KS back into TX
Permian Basin, are forecast to be in place early Saturday morning.
The northern shortwave is expected to move gradually eastward over
the Upper Great Lakes and into southern Ontario. The southern
shortwave is expected to move quickly eastward across the southern
Plains, Lower MS Valley, and much of the Southeast. Another
shortwave trough will likely begin the period over the northern
Rockies before dropping quickly southeastward. This shortwave is
forecast to reach the central Plains by early Sunday morning.

Any thunderstorm potential across the CONUS will be associated with
the southern shortwave moving across the southern Plains, Lower MS
Valley, and Southeast. Cold front associated with this shortwave
will likely extend from a weak low over southeast OK/northeast TX
southwestward through the Edwards Plateau early Saturday morning.
Modest moisture advection is anticipated ahead of this front through
the early evening. During the evening, secondary cyclogenesis will
occur along the Upper TX coast, limiting the northward moisture
transport thereafter.

Modest, predominately elevated, instability will likely contribute
to isolated lightning strikes within the deeper cores over the warm
sector. Given that the majority of this activity will be rooted
around 850mb, the severe potential is expected to remain low. There
is a low probability that surface-based storms could develop along
the middle TX Coast ahead of the front. However, current expectation
is that any surface-based development will occur offshore.

..Mosier.. 12/18/2020

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