SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Saturday through Saturday night. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A pair shortwave troughs, one initially extending across the Upper Midwest and the other extending from south-central KS back into TX Permian Basin, are forecast to be in place early Saturday morning. The northern shortwave is expected to move gradually eastward over the Upper Great Lakes and into southern Ontario. The southern shortwave is expected to move quickly eastward across the southern Plains, Lower MS Valley, and much of the Southeast. Another shortwave trough will likely begin the period over the northern Rockies before dropping quickly southeastward. This shortwave is forecast to reach the central Plains by early Sunday morning. Any thunderstorm potential across the CONUS will be associated with the southern shortwave moving across the southern Plains, Lower MS Valley, and Southeast. Cold front associated with this shortwave will likely extend from a weak low over southeast OK/northeast TX southwestward through the Edwards Plateau early Saturday morning. Modest moisture advection is anticipated ahead of this front through the early evening. During the evening, secondary cyclogenesis will occur along the Upper TX coast, limiting the northward moisture transport thereafter. Modest, predominately elevated, instability will likely contribute to isolated lightning strikes within the deeper cores over the warm sector. Given that the majority of this activity will be rooted around 850mb, the severe potential is expected to remain low. There is a low probability that surface-based storms could develop along the middle TX Coast ahead of the front. However, current expectation is that any surface-based development will occur offshore. ..Mosier.. 12/18/2020
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