SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over portions of the central and
eastern Gulf Coast regions on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Broadly cyclonic upper flow is expected to be in place over the
central and eastern CONUS early Sunday morning. Two shortwave
troughs are forecast to exist within this troughing early Sunday,
one extending from the Upper OH Valley into AL/GA and the other from
the central Plains through southern High Plains. The lead shortwave
is forecast to continue northeastward through the Mid-Atlantic and
offshore while the shortwave continues southeastward through the
Mid/Lower MS Valley and TN Valley/Southeast.

A surface low is expected to be centered just off the southeastern
LA coast at the beginning of the period. This low will likely then
track gradually eastward very near the central Gulf Coast throughout
the day before shifting northeastward over northern FL and ending
the period just off the GA/SC coast. Given the expected path of this
low, inland penetration of the warm sector will be minimal. A few
lightning flashes are possible amid the weak buoyancy and modest
ascent near the surface low and along the attendant cold front. If
the system is more progressive, it could contribute to higher
lightning potential across central/southern FL. However, low
predictability limits expanding the thunder area into more of
central/south FL with this outlook.

..Mosier.. 12/18/2020

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