SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast regions on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic upper flow is expected to be in place over the central and eastern CONUS early Sunday morning. Two shortwave troughs are forecast to exist within this troughing early Sunday, one extending from the Upper OH Valley into AL/GA and the other from the central Plains through southern High Plains. The lead shortwave is forecast to continue northeastward through the Mid-Atlantic and offshore while the shortwave continues southeastward through the Mid/Lower MS Valley and TN Valley/Southeast. A surface low is expected to be centered just off the southeastern LA coast at the beginning of the period. This low will likely then track gradually eastward very near the central Gulf Coast throughout the day before shifting northeastward over northern FL and ending the period just off the GA/SC coast. Given the expected path of this low, inland penetration of the warm sector will be minimal. A few lightning flashes are possible amid the weak buoyancy and modest ascent near the surface low and along the attendant cold front. If the system is more progressive, it could contribute to higher lightning potential across central/southern FL. However, low predictability limits expanding the thunder area into more of central/south FL with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 12/18/2020
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