SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1016 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z


Thunderstorm development will be possible late tonight from parts of
the Texas Hill Country northeastward to the Arklatex. No severe
thunderstorms are expected.

Low-level moisture, characterized by dew points in the mid 50s to
lower 60s, will gradually increase across portions of
southern/eastern TX through tonight ahead of a positively-tilted
upper trough and surface cold front. The cold front will move east
and should extend from central WI southwest to central TX by 12z
Saturday. Steepening mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MUCAPE
of 400-600 J/kg, primarily after 06z. An area of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to develop across central/eastern TX late
tonight as modest height falls and low-level warm advection
increase. Weak elevated instability should preclude a severe risk
with these thunderstorms.

..Bunting/Lyons.. 12/18/2020

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