SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible late tonight from parts of the Texas Hill Country northeastward to the Arklatex. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Gleason.. 12/18/2020 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020/ ...Synopsis... Low-level moisture, characterized by dew points in the mid 50s to lower 60s, will gradually increase across portions of southern/eastern TX through tonight ahead of a positively-tilted upper trough and surface cold front. The cold front will move east and should extend from central WI southwest to central TX by 12z Saturday. Steepening mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MUCAPE of 400-600 J/kg, primarily after 06z. An area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop across central/eastern TX late tonight as modest height falls and low-level warm advection increase. Weak elevated instability should preclude a severe risk with these thunderstorms.
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