SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z


Thunderstorm development will be possible late tonight from parts of
the Texas Hill Country northeastward to the Arklatex. No severe
thunderstorms are expected.

...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.

..Gleason.. 12/18/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020/

Low-level moisture, characterized by dew points in the mid 50s to
lower 60s, will gradually increase across portions of
southern/eastern TX through tonight ahead of a positively-tilted
upper trough and surface cold front. The cold front will move east
and should extend from central WI southwest to central TX by 12z
Saturday. Steepening mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MUCAPE
of 400-600 J/kg, primarily after 06z. An area of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to develop across central/eastern TX late
tonight as modest height falls and low-level warm advection
increase. Weak elevated instability should preclude a severe risk
with these thunderstorms.

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