Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that upper ridging over the western CONUS on D4/Monday will move eastward across the central and eastern CONUS on D5/Tuesday and D6/Wednesday. Deep upper troughing is expected to develop across the Plains on D6/Wednesday in the wake of the upper ridging. Further deepening is anticipated as this upper trough continues eastward over the eastern CONUS on D7/Thursday. A strong cold front is forecast to accompany this upper trough. This front is currently expected to move through much of the Plains on D5/Tuesday, the MS, TN, and OH Valleys on D6/Wednesday, and off the East Coast D7/Thursday. Moisture return ahead of the upper trough and attendant cold front is currently expected to be modest and confined to central/east TX and the Lower MS Valley. This limited moisture return will temper severe potential. However, subtle change in timing could result in higher potential, particularly given the anticipated strength of the system.
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