SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development will be possible late tonight from parts of
the Texas Hill Country northeastward to the Arklatex. No severe
thunderstorms are expected.

...01z Update...

Low-level trajectories are becoming more favorable across the
western Gulf Basin for modified boundary-layer moisture to advance
inland across the Coastal Plain of TX. Even so, air mass across this
region is strongly capped, as evident by 00z soundings at CRP and
BRO. However, late tonight, sustained moisture advection should
contribute to elevated buoyancy across the Hill Country of TX and
convection is expected to develop before sunrise. Isolated
thunderstorms may initiate as far west as the Edwards Plateau, then
spread/develop northeast across central TX toward the Arklatex. RAP
forecast sounding at 11z for SJT exhibits ~700 J/kg MUCAPE if
lifting a parcel near 850mb. While mid-level lapse rates will be
steep, it appears instability will be inadequate for severe hail
with these storms.

..Darrow.. 12/19/2020

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