SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible late tonight from parts of the Texas Hill Country northeastward to the Arklatex. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...01z Update... Low-level trajectories are becoming more favorable across the western Gulf Basin for modified boundary-layer moisture to advance inland across the Coastal Plain of TX. Even so, air mass across this region is strongly capped, as evident by 00z soundings at CRP and BRO. However, late tonight, sustained moisture advection should contribute to elevated buoyancy across the Hill Country of TX and convection is expected to develop before sunrise. Isolated thunderstorms may initiate as far west as the Edwards Plateau, then spread/develop northeast across central TX toward the Arklatex. RAP forecast sounding at 11z for SJT exhibits ~700 J/kg MUCAPE if lifting a parcel near 850mb. While mid-level lapse rates will be steep, it appears instability will be inadequate for severe hail with these storms. ..Darrow.. 12/19/2020
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