SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 AM CST Sat Dec 19 2020

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z


Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the central Gulf Coast
through Florida on Sunday.

Two shortwave troughs are forecast to be embedded within the broad
upper troughing expected to be in place across the central and
eastern CONUS on Sunday morning. Lead shortwave initially extending
from the middle OH Valley into GA will continue northeastward off
the northern Mid-Atlantic/southern New England Coast. The second
shortwave will likely begin the period extending from the central
Plains into the southern High Plains. Expectation is for this
shortwave to quickly progress southeastward through the mid/lower MS
Valley and Southeast.

Surface low forecast to start the period just off the southeast LA
coast is expected to track eastward along the central and
northeastern Gulf Coast before moving across northern FL late. Given
the expected path of this low, inland penetration of the warm sector
will be minimal. A few lightning flashes are possible amid the weak
buoyancy and modest ascent near the surface low and along the
attendant cold front, both along the central Gulf Coast, southern
GA, and the FL Panhandle. 

Strong flow aloft will spread across the FL Peninsula, with the
resulting vertical shear strong enough to support organized
updrafts. However, warm temperatures aloft and modest low-level
moisture will limit buoyancy. The current expectation is for
predominantly transient and shallow updrafts along and ahead of the
front as it moves over the central and southern FL Peninsula.

..Mosier.. 12/19/2020

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