SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sat Dec 19 2020 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the middle/upper Texas Coast. ...Middle/Upper Texas Coast... A shortwave trough over Texas/Oklahoma will continue to spread generally eastward and reach the Tennessee Valley and middle Gulf Coast late tonight. In advance of a southeastward-moving cold front across northeast/central Texas, multi-layer cloud cover remains prevalent late this morning as middle 60s F surface dewpoints slowly spread inland along the middle/upper Texas coast. Modest destabilization will steadily occur through early/mid-afternoon, but the persistent cloud cover and increasing showers/thunderstorms will probably limit the spatial extent of appreciable pre-frontal destabilization over inland areas. Regardless, an increase in surface-based deep convection is possible along the immediate coast this afternoon. Moderately strong deep-layer/low-level shear would support some supercells, with locally damaging winds and/or a brief tornado possible. It is probable that near/pre-frontal storm mergers across the coastal plain should lead to an offshore shift of a convective band by late afternoon/early evening. Accordingly, the most intense convection should be relegated to the western Gulf of Mexico tonight. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/19/2020
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