SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Sat Dec 19 2020

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of the middle/upper Texas Coast.

...Middle/Upper Texas Coast...
A shortwave trough over Texas/Oklahoma will continue to spread
generally eastward and reach the Tennessee Valley and middle Gulf
Coast late tonight. In advance of a southeastward-moving cold front
across northeast/central Texas, multi-layer cloud cover remains
prevalent late this morning as middle 60s F surface dewpoints slowly
spread inland along the middle/upper Texas coast. Modest
destabilization will steadily occur through early/mid-afternoon, but
the persistent cloud cover and increasing showers/thunderstorms will
probably limit the spatial extent of appreciable pre-frontal
destabilization over inland areas. Regardless, an increase in
surface-based deep convection is possible along the immediate coast
this afternoon. Moderately strong deep-layer/low-level shear would
support some supercells, with locally damaging winds and/or a brief
tornado possible. 

It is probable that near/pre-frontal storm mergers across the
coastal plain should lead to an offshore shift of a convective band
by late afternoon/early evening. Accordingly, the most intense
convection should be relegated to the western Gulf of Mexico
tonight.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/19/2020

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