SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CST Sat Dec 19 2020

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z


Isolated thunderstorms are expected across much of Florida and
southeast Georgia on Sunday.


An upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest to the southern
Plains Sunday morning will pivot eastward through the period,
extending from the lower Great Lakes to FL by Monday morning. At the
surface, a weak low near the mouth of the MS River will develop
eastward across the northeasterly Gulf of Mexico through early
evening. Meanwhile, a cold front will shift eastward across the Gulf
of Mexico in tandem with the low, eventually shifting east/southeast
across northern and central FL overnight. 

Low level moisture will increase across the eastern Gulf ahead of
the surface low and cold front, while mid/upper southwesterly flow
strengthens. However, a poorer-quality airmass over northern FL into
the central peninsula will be slower to recover. Surface dewpoints
in the 50s to near 60 F will reside over much of FL through peak
heating, limiting instability. Furthermore, some warming aloft will
result in shallower convection. Clusters of thunderstorms will
likely move onshore north of the Tampa area during the afternoon in
the vicinity of a warm front. However, this activity will quickly
lift north of the front and into a drier, weakly unstable airmass
and should pose little threat for severe convection.

Most guidance does bring richer low level moisture into the southern
peninsula and along the west coast of FL from near Tampa southward
after peak heating. However, will be ill-timed with stronger forcing
moving well to the northeast of the region by evening. Furthermore,
any convection moving onshore will likely outpace the arrival of
better moisture. While a strong storm can not be totally ruled out,
confidence is low that severe convection will occur.

..Leitman.. 12/19/2020

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