SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Sat Dec 19 2020 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across much of Florida and southeast Georgia on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough extending from the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains Sunday morning will pivot eastward through the period, extending from the lower Great Lakes to FL by Monday morning. At the surface, a weak low near the mouth of the MS River will develop eastward across the northeasterly Gulf of Mexico through early evening. Meanwhile, a cold front will shift eastward across the Gulf of Mexico in tandem with the low, eventually shifting east/southeast across northern and central FL overnight. Low level moisture will increase across the eastern Gulf ahead of the surface low and cold front, while mid/upper southwesterly flow strengthens. However, a poorer-quality airmass over northern FL into the central peninsula will be slower to recover. Surface dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F will reside over much of FL through peak heating, limiting instability. Furthermore, some warming aloft will result in shallower convection. Clusters of thunderstorms will likely move onshore north of the Tampa area during the afternoon in the vicinity of a warm front. However, this activity will quickly lift north of the front and into a drier, weakly unstable airmass and should pose little threat for severe convection. Most guidance does bring richer low level moisture into the southern peninsula and along the west coast of FL from near Tampa southward after peak heating. However, will be ill-timed with stronger forcing moving well to the northeast of the region by evening. Furthermore, any convection moving onshore will likely outpace the arrival of better moisture. While a strong storm can not be totally ruled out, confidence is low that severe convection will occur. ..Leitman.. 12/19/2020
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