Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CST Sat Dec 19 2020

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance continues to forecast significant
amplification of a shortwave trough moving out of the Pacific
Northwest D4/Tuesday. Forecast guidance suggests this shortwave
deepens as it moves over the Plains on D5/Wednesday and continues
maturing over the eastern CONUS on D6/Thursday. Very strong
mid-level flow will develop around this upper trough, with a very
deep surface low and strong cold front also anticipated. 

Main uncertainties are the speed of the system's eastward
progression and the quality of the moisture return ahead of the cold
front. Current guidance would suggest some low-probability severe
potential does exist on D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday, but limited
moisture return is forecast to limit a more widespread severe
threat.

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