SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 PM CST Sat Dec 19 2020

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z


Isolated thunderstorms are expected today from Florida to the
Carolina Coast.

...FL/Carolina Coast...

Progressive short-wave trough currently located over the lower MS
Valley will eject east into GA early in the period, deamplifying in
response to a digging short-wave over the central Plains. This lead
feature will encourage a weak surface low to track across the
northern Gulf Basin into the FL Big Bend region by 21/00z. Ahead of
this disturbance, modified Gulf air mass will spread toward the FL
Gulf Coast enabling weak buoyancy to materialize along the southern
fringe of the influence of the GA short wave. Forecast soundings
suggest near-surface based convection could develop ahead of the
surface wave within a weak warm advection regime. While deep-layer
flow would seemingly support supercells, low-level shear is not
forecast to be that strong and any organization would likely remain
sub-severe. Although, gusty winds could be noted with a few
thunderstorms as they move onshore.

..Darrow/Dean.. 12/20/2020

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