SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Sat Dec 19 2020 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected today from Florida to the Carolina Coast. ...FL/Carolina Coast... Progressive short-wave trough currently located over the lower MS Valley will eject east into GA early in the period, deamplifying in response to a digging short-wave over the central Plains. This lead feature will encourage a weak surface low to track across the northern Gulf Basin into the FL Big Bend region by 21/00z. Ahead of this disturbance, modified Gulf air mass will spread toward the FL Gulf Coast enabling weak buoyancy to materialize along the southern fringe of the influence of the GA short wave. Forecast soundings suggest near-surface based convection could develop ahead of the surface wave within a weak warm advection regime. While deep-layer flow would seemingly support supercells, low-level shear is not forecast to be that strong and any organization would likely remain sub-severe. Although, gusty winds could be noted with a few thunderstorms as they move onshore. ..Darrow/Dean.. 12/20/2020
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