SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sun Dec 20 2020 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may affect parts of the western Florida Peninsula late this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update - Western FL Peninsula... The Marginal risk remains unchanged with this update. A strong storm offshore Manatee County showed weak to moderate rotation over the past hour or so. The storm has since weakened as it approaches the coast, where instability is much weaker than further west over the eastern Gulf waters. Nevertheless, as moisture continues to increase ahead of a surface cold front, some modest increase in instability is expected along the western Florida peninsula. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage and move inland through this evening, and a few strong storms are possible. For more details concerning the short-term risk, see MCD 1860. ..Leitman.. 12/20/2020 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sun Dec 20 2020/ ...Western Florida Peninsula... Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing over the eastern Gulf of Mexico west/southwest of the Tampa/St Petersburg area at midday. This inland-spreading precipitation will tend to delineate the northward extent of modest surface-based destabilization this afternoon as mid/some upper 60s F surface dewpoints otherwise expand northward across the southern/central Florida Peninsula through early/mid-evening. Although the passing shortwave trough will tend to weaken into tonight, residually strong low/mid-level winds will support the possibility of well-organized storms/few supercells near and across the western Florida Peninsula as additional moistening and destabilization occur. A few damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado could occur late this afternoon and evening.
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