SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CST Sun Dec 20 2020

Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may affect parts of the western
Florida Peninsula late this afternoon and evening.

...20z Update - Western FL Peninsula...

The Marginal risk remains unchanged with this update. A strong storm
offshore Manatee County showed weak to moderate rotation over the
past hour or so. The storm has since weakened as it approaches the
coast, where instability is much weaker than further west over the
eastern Gulf waters. Nevertheless, as moisture continues to increase
ahead of a surface cold front, some modest increase in instability
is expected along the western Florida peninsula. Thunderstorms
should increase in coverage and move inland through this evening,
and a few strong storms are possible. For more details concerning
the short-term risk, see MCD 1860.

..Leitman.. 12/20/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sun Dec 20 2020/

...Western Florida Peninsula...
Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico west/southwest of the Tampa/St Petersburg area at midday.
This inland-spreading precipitation will tend to delineate the
northward extent of modest surface-based destabilization this
afternoon as mid/some upper 60s F surface dewpoints otherwise expand
northward across the southern/central Florida Peninsula through
early/mid-evening. Although the passing shortwave trough will tend
to weaken into tonight, residually strong low/mid-level winds will
support the possibility of well-organized storms/few supercells near
and across the western Florida Peninsula as additional moistening
and destabilization occur. A few damaging wind gusts and/or a
tornado could occur late this afternoon and evening.

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