Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CST Sun Dec 20 2020 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Deep upper troughing is expected to be in place over the western and central CONUS early D4/Wednesday. This upper troughing is then expected to progress eastward as an embedded shortwave trough moves across the central Plains. Another shortwave is forecast to follow quickly in the wake of the first, moving across the southern Plains D4/Wednesday night. By early D5/Thursday, a deep upper trough will likely extend from Ontario southward into the southern Plains, with strong flow aloft surrounding it. Continue eastward motion is expected into D6/Friday, with further deepening/maturing of the system. Some severe potential appears possible across central/east TX into the Lower MS Valley on D4/Wednesday as the cold front moves through, and the Carolinas/southern VA late D5/Thursday or early D6/Friday. However, in both cases, instability is expected to be modest, which will limit coverage. Additionally, differences in timing within the guidance results in uncertainty regarding location. These factors limit predictability. Stable conditions are currently forecast after D6/Friday.
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