Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CST Sun Dec 20 2020

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Deep upper troughing is expected to be in place over the western and
central CONUS early D4/Wednesday. This upper troughing is then
expected to progress eastward as an embedded shortwave trough moves
across the central Plains. Another shortwave is forecast to follow
quickly in the wake of the first, moving across the southern Plains
D4/Wednesday night. 

By early D5/Thursday, a deep upper trough will likely extend from
Ontario southward into the southern Plains, with strong flow aloft
surrounding it. Continue eastward motion is expected into D6/Friday,
with further deepening/maturing of the system. 

Some severe potential appears possible across central/east TX into
the Lower MS Valley on D4/Wednesday as the cold front moves through,
and the Carolinas/southern VA late D5/Thursday or early D6/Friday.
However, in both cases, instability is expected to be modest, which
will limit coverage. Additionally, differences in timing within the
guidance results in uncertainty regarding location. These factors
limit predictability. Stable conditions are currently forecast after
D6/Friday.

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