SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CST Mon Dec 21 2020

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z


Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Alberta
southwestward through the western Great Basin early Tuesday morning.
This shortwave is expected to progress eastward/southeastward
throughout the day while also deepening. This evolution will
contribute to amplification of the overall upper pattern, with a
well-defined ridge/trough/ridge pattern anticipated over the CONUS
by early Wednesday morning. 

At the surface, low associated with this shortwave trough will begin
the period over central MT before tracking quickly eastward across
the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Secondary cyclogenesis
is anticipated over the central High Plains Tuesday night/early
Wednesday morning. A strong cold front will accompany this low,
sweeping briskly across the northern and central Plains. By 12Z
Wednesday, this front is expected to extend from the primary low
over east-central MN/northwest WI southwestward through the Ozark
Plateau into north TX. 

Some modest moisture advection is expected across the southern
Plains in advance of this system, with mid 50s dewpoints likely
reaching north TX ahead of the front early Wednesday morning. A
lightning flash or two cannot be entirely ruled out within this
return flow, but the better low-level moisture will remain displaced
ahead of the front until later Wednesday, limiting thunderstorm

..Mosier.. 12/21/2020

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