SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CST Mon Dec 21 2020

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

Deep convective potential is expected to essentially be nil over the
CONUS through tonight. A semi-amplified but progressive large-scale
pattern will prevail, highlighted by a prevalent upper trough over
the Great Lakes/Northeast States, while another shortwave
trough/associated front moves inland over the Pacific Northwest. A
cold frontal passage has ended the early day thunderstorm potential
across southern Florida. A stray lightning flash cannot be
conclusively ruled out near coastal Washington later this
afternoon/early evening. However, even with steepening mid-level
lapse rates, thermodynamic profiles are likely to remain very
marginal for lightning generation, with associated thunderstorm
probabilities remaining below 10 percent.

..Guyer.. 12/21/2020

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