SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Mon Dec 21 2020 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front has shifted south/southeast of the FL peninsula and will clear the Keys within the hour. Thunderstorm activity associated with this front remains well offshore and to the east FL over the Bahamas. Thunderstorms are not expected for the remainder of the period, and no changes are necessary. ..Leitman.. 12/21/2020 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Mon Dec 21 2020/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... Deep convective potential is expected to essentially be nil over the CONUS through tonight. A semi-amplified but progressive large-scale pattern will prevail, highlighted by a prevalent upper trough over the Great Lakes/Northeast States, while another shortwave trough/associated front moves inland over the Pacific Northwest. A cold frontal passage has ended the early day thunderstorm potential across southern Florida. A stray lightning flash cannot be conclusively ruled out near coastal Washington later this afternoon/early evening. However, even with steepening mid-level lapse rates, thermodynamic profiles are likely to remain very marginal for lightning generation, with associated thunderstorm probabilities remaining below 10 percent.
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