SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CST Mon Dec 21 2020

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.


A surface cold front has shifted south/southeast of the FL peninsula
and will clear the Keys within the hour. Thunderstorm activity
associated with this front remains well offshore and to the east FL
over the Bahamas. Thunderstorms are not expected for the remainder
of the period, and no changes are necessary.

..Leitman.. 12/21/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Mon Dec 21 2020/

Deep convective potential is expected to essentially be nil over the
CONUS through tonight. A semi-amplified but progressive large-scale
pattern will prevail, highlighted by a prevalent upper trough over
the Great Lakes/Northeast States, while another shortwave
trough/associated front moves inland over the Pacific Northwest. A
cold frontal passage has ended the early day thunderstorm potential
across southern Florida. A stray lightning flash cannot be
conclusively ruled out near coastal Washington later this
afternoon/early evening. However, even with steepening mid-level
lapse rates, thermodynamic profiles are likely to remain very
marginal for lightning generation, with associated thunderstorm
probabilities remaining below 10 percent.

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