SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2020 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A threat for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will shift eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast region this afternoon through tonight. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Gulf Coast States... Steady height falls are expected today as a base-embedded/positive-tilt portion of an upper trough spreads toward the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through tonight, with a cold front moving southeastward across the region. Within the warm sector, showers/some thunderstorms should gradually increase this afternoon from the middle/upper Texas coast into Louisiana. Although cloud cover may remain semi-prevalent ahead of the cold front, a moistening/warming boundary layer and gradual erosion of convective inhibition suggests that this activity may gradually become more surface-based and potentially intensify as early as mid/late afternoon, although the cloud cover/initially modest forcing for ascent are points of temporal uncertainty. Another zone of intensifying thunderstorm development is expected immediately near the cold front as it moves southeastward across the ArkLaTex/Mid-South late this afternoon/early evening. Moisture/buoyancy will be comparatively lesser with northward extend, but with very strong southwesterly winds through a deep layer, at least some potential for damaging winds/possibly a brief tornado will exist with near-surface-based storms late this afternoon into tonight. Overall, convection will become increasing prevalent/organized this evening, including linearly organized convection near the cold front as well as front/line-preceding semi-discrete development including supercells, with all of this activity tending to merge overnight. Damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will be possible, particularly across parts of Louisiana and far southern Mississippi. A severe risk may exist as far east as the Florida Panhandle/southern Alabama late tonight into early Thursday. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/23/2020
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