SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2020

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A threat for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will shift
eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast
region this afternoon through tonight.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Gulf Coast States...
Steady height falls are expected today as a
base-embedded/positive-tilt portion of an upper trough spreads
toward the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through tonight, with a
cold front moving southeastward across the region. 

Within the warm sector, showers/some thunderstorms should gradually
increase this afternoon from the middle/upper Texas coast into
Louisiana. Although cloud cover may remain semi-prevalent ahead of
the cold front, a moistening/warming boundary layer and gradual
erosion of convective inhibition suggests that this activity may
gradually become more surface-based and potentially intensify as
early as mid/late afternoon, although the cloud cover/initially
modest forcing for ascent are points of temporal uncertainty. 

Another zone of intensifying thunderstorm development is expected
immediately near the cold front as it moves southeastward across the
ArkLaTex/Mid-South late this afternoon/early evening.
Moisture/buoyancy will be comparatively lesser with northward
extend, but with very strong southwesterly winds through a deep
layer, at least some potential for damaging winds/possibly a brief
tornado will exist with near-surface-based storms late this
afternoon into tonight.

Overall, convection will become increasing prevalent/organized this
evening, including linearly organized convection near the cold front
as well as front/line-preceding semi-discrete development including
supercells, with all of this activity tending to merge overnight.
Damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will be possible,
particularly across parts of Louisiana and far southern Mississippi.
A severe risk may exist as far east as the Florida
Panhandle/southern Alabama late tonight into early Thursday.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/23/2020

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