Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Thu Dec 24 2020 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is currently expected to move quickly eastward from the northern/central Plains through the mid/upper MS Valley, OH Valley and Upper Great Lakes on D4/Sunday. Surface low associated with this shortwave will take a similar path with an attendant cold front sweeping eastward/southeastward across the OH,TN, and Lower MS Valleys. Limited low-level moisture will likely preclude thunderstorm development along the front. Another northern-stream shortwave trough will follow quickly behind the initial shortwave, moving through the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley late D4/Sunday and early D5/Monday. A third, more substantial southern-stream shortwave is currently forecast to move across the Southwest/Four Corners on D5/Monday and into the Plains on D6/Tuesday. Model guidance continues to struggle with both model-to-model and run-to-run consistency regarding the evolution of this system. Even with thee inconsistencies, the overall strength of the system suggests some severe storms will be possible if enough moisture return precedes it.
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