Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 AM CST Thu Dec 24 2020

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough is currently expected to move quickly eastward
from the northern/central Plains through the mid/upper MS Valley, OH
Valley and Upper Great Lakes on D4/Sunday. Surface low associated
with this shortwave will take a similar path with an attendant cold
front sweeping eastward/southeastward across the OH,TN, and Lower MS
Valleys. Limited low-level moisture will likely preclude
thunderstorm development along the front. 

Another northern-stream shortwave trough will follow quickly behind
the initial shortwave, moving through the northern Plains/Upper MS
Valley late D4/Sunday and early D5/Monday. A third, more substantial
southern-stream shortwave is currently forecast to move across the
Southwest/Four Corners on D5/Monday and into the Plains on
D6/Tuesday. Model guidance continues to struggle with both
model-to-model and run-to-run consistency regarding the evolution of
this system. Even with thee inconsistencies, the overall strength of
the system suggests some severe storms will be possible if enough
moisture return precedes it.

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