SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CST Thu Dec 24 2020

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe risk -- which includes potential for locally damaging winds
and a few tornadoes -- continues across portions of the Carolinas
and Mid-Atlantic region, and to a lesser degree southward into
Florida.

...01z Update...

Strong 500mb speed max appears to have translated through the base
of the eastern US trough and will eject across GA into VA later
tonight. Cold front associated with this feature is beginning to
surge east across western NC/SC at roughly 35kt. While the majority
of deep convection with lightning is observed ahead of this wind
shift, will maintain severe probabilities along/ahead of the
synoptic frontal zone. Given the latest trends, will continue a SLGT
Risk downstream across Coastal NC/SC into southeast VA where
buoyancy remains greatest in association with mid 60s surface dew
points. Very strong flow just off the surface remains conducive for
strong wind gusts if augmented by minimal convective contribution.
Shear is also impressive across the warm sector so damaging winds
and some tornado threat remain until the front moves offshore.

..Darrow.. 12/25/2020

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