SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Fri Dec 25 2020 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes may occur this morning across parts of New England, and later this afternoon into tonight for coastal areas of southern Oregon and northern California. ...Southeast New England area this morning... A low-topped, pre-frontal convective band will move across southeast New England this morning, in advance of a deep midlevel trough over the OH Valley and south of a surface cyclone developing northward from NY into QC. Weak buoyancy rooted near 850 mb could be sufficiently deep for isolated lightning flashes within the convective band. The elevated nature of the convection and limited downdraft potential suggest that strong gust potential will not be appreciably greater in the band compared to gradient winds in the warm sector (in the presence of an 80 kt low-level jet). ...Southern OR/northern CA coasts late today into tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough will move inland over northern CA and OR later today into tonight. Cooling midlevel temperatures and steepening low-midlevel lapse rates will support weak buoyancy along and west of the cold front, where isolated lightning flashes will be possible beginning around 21-00z and continuing into tonight. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 12/25/2020
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