SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 AM CST Fri Dec 25 2020

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated lightning flashes may occur this morning across parts of
New England, and later this afternoon into tonight for coastal areas
of southern Oregon and northern California.

...Southeast New England area this morning...
A low-topped, pre-frontal convective band will move across southeast
New England this morning, in advance of a deep midlevel trough over
the OH Valley and south of a surface cyclone developing northward
from NY into QC.  Weak buoyancy rooted near 850 mb could be
sufficiently deep for isolated lightning flashes within the
convective band.  The elevated nature of the convection and limited
downdraft potential suggest that strong gust potential will not be
appreciably greater in the band compared to gradient winds in the
warm sector (in the presence of an 80 kt low-level jet).

...Southern OR/northern CA coasts late today into tonight...
A midlevel shortwave trough will move inland over northern CA and OR
later today into tonight.  Cooling midlevel temperatures and
steepening low-midlevel lapse rates will support weak buoyancy along
and west of the cold front, where isolated lightning flashes will be
possible beginning around 21-00z and continuing into tonight.

..Thompson/Gleason.. 12/25/2020

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