SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1008 AM CST Fri Dec 25 2020

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms is negligible through early
Saturday.

...Southwest OR and northwest CA...
A shortwave trough will move inland across the Pacific Northwest
this evening through tonight. Cooling mid-level temperatures and
steepening low to mid-level lapse rates will support scant buoyancy
west of the surface cold front. Scattered low-topped convection
within this onshore flow regime may yield isolated lightning flashes
after 00Z through tonight. Small hail is possible in the deeper
updrafts with moderate speed shear in a nearly unidirectional
southwesterly wind profile, which may result in effective bulk
values approaching 30 kts.

...Southern ME...
A narrow low-topped convective line recently weakened across eastern
MA as low-level convergence has diminished along this leading cold
front while focusing back west in eastern NY along a trailing
frontal surge. Nevertheless, guidance still indicates scant elevated
buoyancy from parcels rooted between 850-700 mb may persist within
the warm conveyor region and yield a threat for very isolated
lightning flashes through about 21Z.

..Grams.. 12/25/2020

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