SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Fri Dec 25 2020

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms is negligible through early
Saturday.

...Discussion...
Very little change is required to the ongoing outlook at this time,
aside from a slight trim on the western fringe of the New England
thunder area, to account for eastward translation of the front. 
Otherwise, potential for a few lightning strikes will continue
across Down East Maine through this evening, and over portions of
coastal Oregon and adjacent northern California this evening and
tonight.

..Goss.. 12/25/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Fri Dec 25 2020/

...Southwest OR and northwest CA...
A shortwave trough will move inland across the Pacific Northwest
this evening through tonight. Cooling mid-level temperatures and
steepening low to mid-level lapse rates will support scant buoyancy
west of the surface cold front. Scattered low-topped convection
within this onshore flow regime may yield isolated lightning flashes
after 00Z through tonight. Small hail is possible in the deeper
updrafts with moderate speed shear in a nearly unidirectional
southwesterly wind profile, which may result in effective bulk
values approaching 30 kts.

...Southern ME...
A narrow low-topped convective line recently weakened across eastern
MA as low-level convergence has diminished along this leading cold
front while focusing back west in eastern NY along a trailing
frontal surge. Nevertheless, guidance still indicates scant elevated
buoyancy from parcels rooted between 850-700 mb may persist within
the warm conveyor region and yield a threat for very isolated
lightning flashes through about 21Z.

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