SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CST Sun Dec 27 2020

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts and hail may develop
across parts of west-central Texas Tuesday evening into the
overnight period.

...Southern Plains...
The northern part of an upper-level trough is forecast to move
eastward across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday as southwest
mid-level flow strengthens across the southern Plains. In response,
a 40 to 60 kt low-level jet will develop in the southern Plains,
resulting in some moisture return across central and west Texas
Tuesday afternoon and evening. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to advance quickly southeastward into west Texas by Tuesday
evening. Increasing low-level convergence ahead of the front along
with weak destabilization should result in convective development
from southwest Oklahoma into the Low-rolling Plains of west-central
Texas. Although deep-layer shear will likely increase into the 70 to
90 kt range, instability is forecast to remain weak ahead of the
front. Forecast soundings Tuesday evening into the overnight period
across west-central Texas increase MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg. This
could be enough for a marginal severe threat in the vicinity of San
Angelo as thunderstorms develop and increase in coverage along the
cold front Tuesday evening. Hail and a few strong wind gusts would
be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 12/27/2020

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