SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Sun Dec 27 2020 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts and hail may develop across parts of west-central Texas Tuesday evening into the overnight period. ...Southern Plains... The northern part of an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday as southwest mid-level flow strengthens across the southern Plains. In response, a 40 to 60 kt low-level jet will develop in the southern Plains, resulting in some moisture return across central and west Texas Tuesday afternoon and evening. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance quickly southeastward into west Texas by Tuesday evening. Increasing low-level convergence ahead of the front along with weak destabilization should result in convective development from southwest Oklahoma into the Low-rolling Plains of west-central Texas. Although deep-layer shear will likely increase into the 70 to 90 kt range, instability is forecast to remain weak ahead of the front. Forecast soundings Tuesday evening into the overnight period across west-central Texas increase MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg. This could be enough for a marginal severe threat in the vicinity of San Angelo as thunderstorms develop and increase in coverage along the cold front Tuesday evening. Hail and a few strong wind gusts would be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 12/27/2020
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