SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Sun Dec 27 2020 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Showers, possibly with a few embedded lightning flashes, will spread across a portion of the southern/central California coast tonight. ...Discussion... No changes are being made to the ongoing outlook; a few lightning flashes remain possible near the southern California coast tonight. ..Goss.. 12/27/2020 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Sun Dec 27 2020/ ...Southern/central CA coast... A vigorous shortwave trough near 35 N and 130 W will progress east-southeast and reach the southern/central CA coast by 12Z tomorrow. Cooling mid-level temperatures and steepening low to mid-level lapse rates will accompany this trough as it approaches the coast, in the zone of ascent within the left-exit region of a 100+ kt 500-mb jet. Lightning detection data have revealed sporadic thunderstorms just ahead of the trough over the eastern Pacific. While buoyancy will remain scant, a threat for isolated thunderstorms is expected along the coast between 06-12Z. This activity will remain low-topped with the intense southwest flow aloft holding at or above the EL, minimizing the risk for severe storms.
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