SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CST Sun Dec 27 2020

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Showers, possibly with a few embedded lightning flashes, will spread
across a portion of the southern/central California coast tonight.

...Discussion...
No changes are being made to the ongoing outlook; a few lightning
flashes remain possible near the southern California coast tonight.

..Goss.. 12/27/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Sun Dec 27 2020/

...Southern/central CA coast...
A vigorous shortwave trough near 35 N and 130 W will progress
east-southeast and reach the southern/central CA coast by 12Z
tomorrow. Cooling mid-level temperatures and steepening low to
mid-level lapse rates will accompany this trough as it approaches
the coast, in the zone of ascent within the left-exit region of a
100+ kt 500-mb jet. Lightning detection data have revealed sporadic
thunderstorms just ahead of the trough over the eastern Pacific.
While buoyancy will remain scant, a threat for isolated
thunderstorms is expected along the coast between 06-12Z. This
activity will remain low-topped with the intense southwest flow
aloft holding at or above the EL, minimizing the risk for severe
storms.

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