SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Mon Dec 28 2020

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z


Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts and hail may develop
across parts of west-central Texas Tuesday evening into the
overnight period.

...West-central Texas...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Desert Southwest
on Tuesday as southwest mid-level flow remains in place across the
south-central United States. Ahead of the system, a broad low-level
jet will strengthen across the southern and central Plains. As a
result, moisture will return northward into Texas during the day on
Tuesday. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the 50s F
by late afternoon from west-central Texas eastward across much of
the Texas Hill Country. In response, a pocket of weak instability is
forecast to develop near San Angelo during the late afternoon and
early evening. Convection that initiates along a cold front is
forecast to develop southeastward into this pocket of instability
during the evening. NAM forecast soundings near and to the south of
San Angelo in the late evening and early overnight period, increase
MUCAPE into the 500 to 750 J/kg range and have effective shear near
60 kt. This could be enough for a marginal severe threat with hail
and strong wind gusts as the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 12/28/2020

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