SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Mon Dec 28 2020 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts and hail may develop across parts of west-central Texas Tuesday evening into the overnight period. ...West-central Texas... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday as southwest mid-level flow remains in place across the south-central United States. Ahead of the system, a broad low-level jet will strengthen across the southern and central Plains. As a result, moisture will return northward into Texas during the day on Tuesday. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the 50s F by late afternoon from west-central Texas eastward across much of the Texas Hill Country. In response, a pocket of weak instability is forecast to develop near San Angelo during the late afternoon and early evening. Convection that initiates along a cold front is forecast to develop southeastward into this pocket of instability during the evening. NAM forecast soundings near and to the south of San Angelo in the late evening and early overnight period, increase MUCAPE into the 500 to 750 J/kg range and have effective shear near 60 kt. This could be enough for a marginal severe threat with hail and strong wind gusts as the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 12/28/2020
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