SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CST Mon Dec 28 2020

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts and hail will be
possible late Wednesday afternoon across parts of the Texas Coastal
Plain.

...Texas Coastal Plain...
An upper-level low is forecast to move east-southeastward across
northern Mexico on Wednesday as southwest mid-level flow remains in
place from the southern Plains into the Arklatex. Strong low-level
flow will be maintained across the Texas Coastal Plain resulting in
an increase in moisture during the day. Surface dewpoints are
forecast increase into the 60s F across much of the Texas Coastal
Plain as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Model forecasts
suggest that the strongest instability will develop during the late
afternoon from near Brownsville northward to near Austin, where
MLCAPE could exceed 1000 J/kg. Thunderstorms appear likely to
develop along the front in the afternoon due to increasing surface
temperatures and enhanced low-level convergence. Additional
convection could initiate to the south of the front across southern
sections of the Texas Coastal Plain. In this area, MLCAPE of 1200
J/kg, 0-6 km shear near 50 kt and steep lapse rates above 700 mb
would be enough for a marginal severe threat. The threat for hail
and strong wind gusts would be greatest from near Victoria northward
to between Austin and College Station between 21Z/Wed and 00Z/Thu.

..Broyles.. 12/28/2020

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