SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Mon Dec 28 2020 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts and hail will be possible late Wednesday afternoon across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. ...Texas Coastal Plain... An upper-level low is forecast to move east-southeastward across northern Mexico on Wednesday as southwest mid-level flow remains in place from the southern Plains into the Arklatex. Strong low-level flow will be maintained across the Texas Coastal Plain resulting in an increase in moisture during the day. Surface dewpoints are forecast increase into the 60s F across much of the Texas Coastal Plain as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Model forecasts suggest that the strongest instability will develop during the late afternoon from near Brownsville northward to near Austin, where MLCAPE could exceed 1000 J/kg. Thunderstorms appear likely to develop along the front in the afternoon due to increasing surface temperatures and enhanced low-level convergence. Additional convection could initiate to the south of the front across southern sections of the Texas Coastal Plain. In this area, MLCAPE of 1200 J/kg, 0-6 km shear near 50 kt and steep lapse rates above 700 mb would be enough for a marginal severe threat. The threat for hail and strong wind gusts would be greatest from near Victoria northward to between Austin and College Station between 21Z/Wed and 00Z/Thu. ..Broyles.. 12/28/2020
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