SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Mon Dec 28 2020 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not anticipated Tuesday into Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A broad, positively tilted upper trough will move eastward on Tuesday, with the southern portion of the trough expected to dig southward over Mexico, while the northern portion is forecast to be more progressive as it moves across the central/northern Plains. A weak surface trough will become established during the day across the southern High Plains, before a cold front surges southward across much of the southern Plains Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. ...Southern Plains... Modest low-level moisture (surface dewpoints in the 50s F) is forecast to stream northward across portions of west/central TX into southwest OK by Tuesday evening, in advance of the cold front. Surface-based buoyancy is expected to remain minimal, but weak elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE of 250-750 J/kg) may develop during the evening/overnight as the upper trough approaches. Elevated convection will become increasingly widespread near/north of the cold front Tuesday night, within a broad warm-advection regime. While strong midlevel southwesterlies will support effective shear magnitudes in excess of 40 kt, weak instability and the tendency for convection to coalesce into cluster or linear modes (versus more discrete modes) are expected to limit the severe hail risk, though small hail will be possible. One or more line segments with the potential for gusty winds cannot be ruled out, though there is currently too much uncertainty regarding the potential and location of any organized upscale growth to include wind probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 12/28/2020
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