SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CST Mon Dec 28 2020

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not anticipated Tuesday into
Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...
A broad, positively tilted upper trough will move eastward on
Tuesday, with the southern portion of the trough expected to dig
southward over Mexico, while the northern portion is forecast to be
more progressive as it moves across the central/northern Plains. A
weak surface trough will become established during the day across
the southern High Plains, before a cold front surges southward
across much of the southern Plains Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning. 

...Southern Plains...
Modest low-level moisture (surface dewpoints in the 50s F) is
forecast to stream northward across portions of west/central TX into
southwest OK by Tuesday evening, in advance of the cold front.
Surface-based buoyancy is expected to remain minimal, but weak
elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE of 250-750 J/kg) may develop during the
evening/overnight as the upper trough approaches. Elevated
convection will become increasingly widespread near/north of the
cold front Tuesday night, within a broad warm-advection regime.
While strong midlevel southwesterlies will support effective shear
magnitudes in excess of 40 kt, weak instability and the tendency for
convection to coalesce into cluster or linear modes (versus more
discrete modes) are expected to limit the severe hail risk, though
small hail will be possible. One or more line segments with the
potential for gusty winds cannot be ruled out, though there is
currently too much uncertainty regarding the potential and location
of any organized upscale growth to include wind probabilities at
this time.

..Dean.. 12/28/2020

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