SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CST Tue Dec 29 2020

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts and hail will be
possible late Wednesday afternoon across parts of the Texas Coastal
Plain.

...Texas Coastal Plain...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across northern Mexico on
Wednesday as southwest mid-level flow remains in place across the
southern Plains and Arklatex. A low-level jet will be maintained
across the Texas Coastal Plain as a cold front advances
southeastward across the Texas Hill Country. Surface heating and
increasing low-level convergence along the front, will result in
thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Model forecasts
suggest a pocket of moderate instability will develop between
Victoria and San Antonio by afternoon. Thunderstorms are forecast to
initiate south of the front and move northeastward across this
pocket of instability. NAM forecast soundings at 21Z on Wednesday
between Victoria and San Antonio have MLCAPE peaking near 1500 J/kg
with 0-6 km shear near 50 kt and steep mid-level lapse rates above
700 mb. This may be enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and
strong wind gusts would be possible with storms that grow upscale in
areas that achieve maximum destabilization.

..Broyles.. 12/29/2020

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