SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CST Tue Dec 29 2020 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts and hail will be possible late Wednesday afternoon across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. ...Texas Coastal Plain... An upper-level trough will move eastward across northern Mexico on Wednesday as southwest mid-level flow remains in place across the southern Plains and Arklatex. A low-level jet will be maintained across the Texas Coastal Plain as a cold front advances southeastward across the Texas Hill Country. Surface heating and increasing low-level convergence along the front, will result in thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Model forecasts suggest a pocket of moderate instability will develop between Victoria and San Antonio by afternoon. Thunderstorms are forecast to initiate south of the front and move northeastward across this pocket of instability. NAM forecast soundings at 21Z on Wednesday between Victoria and San Antonio have MLCAPE peaking near 1500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near 50 kt and steep mid-level lapse rates above 700 mb. This may be enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts would be possible with storms that grow upscale in areas that achieve maximum destabilization. ..Broyles.. 12/29/2020
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