SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 AM CST Tue Dec 29 2020 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely through tonight. ...Southern Plains area through tonight... A midlevel trough off the southern CA coast will dig southeastward to northwestern Mexico overnight, while a separate shortwave trough moves east-southeastward from SK to MN. There will be some northward progress of the surface warm sector today across OK/KS, but a cold front will begin to surge southeastward tonight across the central/southern Plains, in the wake of the northern stream shortwave trough. A continued influx of boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s into south TX and mid-upper 50s into northwest TX, on a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet, will contribute to gradual moistening and destabilization. A few elevated thunderstorms will continue today in the warm advection zone (with CAPE rooted in the 850-700 mb layer) from OK into KS, some of which will be accompanied by freezing precipitation this morning across KS. A somewhat more concentrated zone of thunderstorms is expected along the cold front tonight as strengthening ascent encounters richer moisture and weak buoyancy rooted just above the surface from central OK into northwest TX. A strong storm or two with small hail will be possible along the front late tonight across the TX Big Country where MUCAPE could reach 750 J/kg, but buoyancy is expected to remain too weak for any appreciable severe threat. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 12/29/2020
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