SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 AM CST Tue Dec 29 2020

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z


Severe storms are unlikely through tonight.

...Southern Plains area through tonight...
A midlevel trough off the southern CA coast will dig southeastward
to northwestern Mexico overnight, while a separate shortwave trough
moves east-southeastward from SK to MN.  There will be some
northward progress of the surface warm sector today across OK/KS,
but a cold front will begin to surge southeastward tonight across
the central/southern Plains, in the wake of the northern stream
shortwave trough.  A continued influx of boundary-layer dewpoints in
the low-mid 60s into south TX and mid-upper 50s into northwest TX,
on a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet, will contribute to gradual
moistening and destabilization.

A few elevated thunderstorms will continue today in the warm
advection zone (with CAPE rooted in the 850-700 mb layer) from OK
into KS, some of which will be accompanied by freezing precipitation
this morning across KS.  A somewhat more concentrated zone of
thunderstorms is expected along the cold front tonight as
strengthening ascent encounters richer moisture and weak buoyancy
rooted just above the surface from central OK into northwest TX.  A
strong storm or two with small hail will be possible along the front
late tonight across the TX Big Country where MUCAPE could reach 750
J/kg, but buoyancy is expected to remain too weak for any
appreciable severe threat.

..Thompson/Gleason.. 12/29/2020

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