SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Tue Dec 29 2020 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK INTO NORTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... A couple storms producing marginally severe hail are possible through the early overnight hours across a portion of northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...01z Update - Southwest OK into northwest TX... As of 0020z, a southeastward-advancing surface cold front extended from northeast KS into northwest OK and the eastern TX Panhandle/South Plains vicinity. 00z regional RAOBs indicate at couple hundred J/kg MUCAPE present in a narrow corridor ahead of the front from parts of southwestern OK into northwest TX. Some remnant warm/dry profiles are noted in the AMA and MAF RAOBs, in the 400-600 mb layer. While steep lapse rates are present across the region, and favorable effective shear exists for organized storms, the overall thermodynamic structure evident in 00z RAOBs suggests weak updrafts. Nevertheless, a strong storm or two, briefly producing marginally severe hail, can not be ruled out, and the Marginal risk area has been left unchanged. ..Leitman.. 12/30/2020
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