Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CST Wed Dec 30 2020

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Saturday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 5...
An upper-level low is forecast to move across the mid Mississippi
Valley on Saturday as southwest mid-level flow remains over much of
the Southeast. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move
across the eastern Gulf Coast States. Thunderstorm development will
be possible ahead of the front during the day from northern Florida
into southeastern Georgia and South Carolina. Although surface
dewpoints should be in the 60s F ahead of the front, instability is
forecast to be very weak suggesting that any severe threat should be
marginal.

On Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move through the
central Appalachians as another upper-level trough moves into the
Ozarks and Arklatex. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to
advance southward across the Florida Peninsula. Marginally severe
storms will be possible along and ahead of the front in southern
Florida Sunday afternoon.

...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8...
On Monday and Tuesday, surface high pressure is forecast to be in
place across the eastern third of the nation, which should limit
thunderstorm potential. On Wednesday, the models suggest an
upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern U.S. The
models have large spread concerning the timing of the upper-level
trough. Some moisture return could occur ahead of the trough in the
western part of the Gulf Coast, where marginally severe storms can
not be ruled out. However, uncertainty is substantial at this range
in the forecast period.

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