Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Wed Dec 30 2020 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 5... An upper-level low is forecast to move across the mid Mississippi Valley on Saturday as southwest mid-level flow remains over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across the eastern Gulf Coast States. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the front during the day from northern Florida into southeastern Georgia and South Carolina. Although surface dewpoints should be in the 60s F ahead of the front, instability is forecast to be very weak suggesting that any severe threat should be marginal. On Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move through the central Appalachians as another upper-level trough moves into the Ozarks and Arklatex. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward across the Florida Peninsula. Marginally severe storms will be possible along and ahead of the front in southern Florida Sunday afternoon. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... On Monday and Tuesday, surface high pressure is forecast to be in place across the eastern third of the nation, which should limit thunderstorm potential. On Wednesday, the models suggest an upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern U.S. The models have large spread concerning the timing of the upper-level trough. Some moisture return could occur ahead of the trough in the western part of the Gulf Coast, where marginally severe storms can not be ruled out. However, uncertainty is substantial at this range in the forecast period.
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