SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Thu Dec 31 2020 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe wind gusts and a marginal tornado threat will be possible on Friday from the Florida Panhandle northward to the Ohio Valley and northeastward into South Carolina. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.... An upper-level low will move through the mid Mississippi Valley on Friday as southwest mid-level flow remains over the Southeast and Carolinas. At the surface, a low will be located in the lower Ohio Valley at the start of the period with a cold front extending southward across middle Tennessee into western Alabama. This front will move eastward during the day. Thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing along and just ahead of the front Friday morning with this convection moving eastward across Kentucky, Tennessee and Alabama into early afternoon. Although surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be in the lower to mid 60s F from middle Tennessee southward, instability should remain weak along the moist axis due to abundant cloud cover and minimal surface heating. At mid-levels, a 60 to 80 kt jet is forecast to move northeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley during the day. This feature will create strong deep-layer shear profiles which will support a marginal severe threat along and just ahead of the cold front. The greatest threat will likely be in the late morning and early afternoon from western Kentucky southward into middle Tennessee, before the mid-level jet moves away from the moist sector. A marginal wind damage/tornado threat may develop with the stronger rotating cells. ...Southeast/South Carolina... An upper-level trough will move northeastward across the Gulf Coast States Friday morning as a cold front advances eastward across the region. Thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across the moist sector, from near the front in Alabama eastward across Georgia and South Carolina. Instability across the moist sector is forecast to remain weak. However, strong deep-layer shear will be in place due to influence of a mid-level jet to the northwest. This combined with strong low-level flow will create conditions supportive of marginally severe wind gusts. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible with cells that rotate. ..Broyles.. 12/31/2020
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