SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CST Thu Dec 31 2020

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH
CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe wind gusts and a
marginal tornado threat will be possible on Friday from the Florida
Panhandle northward to the Ohio Valley and northeastward into South
Carolina.

...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys....
An upper-level low will move through the mid Mississippi Valley on
Friday as southwest mid-level flow remains over the Southeast and
Carolinas. At the surface, a low will be located in the lower Ohio
Valley at the start of the period with a cold front extending
southward across middle Tennessee into western Alabama. This front
will move eastward during the day. Thunderstorms appear likely to be
ongoing along and just ahead of the front Friday morning with this
convection moving eastward across Kentucky, Tennessee and Alabama
into early afternoon. Although surface dewpoints ahead of the front
are forecast to be in the lower to mid 60s F from middle Tennessee
southward, instability should remain weak along the moist axis due
to abundant cloud cover and minimal surface heating. 

At mid-levels, a 60 to 80 kt jet is forecast to move northeastward
across the mid Mississippi Valley during the day. This feature will
create strong deep-layer shear profiles which will support a
marginal severe threat along and just ahead of the cold front.  The
greatest threat will likely be in the late morning and early
afternoon from western Kentucky southward into middle Tennessee,
before the mid-level jet moves away from the moist sector. A
marginal wind damage/tornado threat may develop with the stronger
rotating cells.

...Southeast/South Carolina...
An upper-level trough will move northeastward across the Gulf Coast
States Friday morning as a cold front advances eastward across the
region. Thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across the moist
sector, from near the front in Alabama eastward across Georgia and
South Carolina. Instability across the moist sector is forecast to
remain weak. However, strong deep-layer shear will be in place due
to influence of a mid-level jet to the northwest. This combined with
strong low-level flow will create conditions supportive of
marginally severe wind gusts. A marginal tornado threat will also be
possible with cells that rotate.

..Broyles.. 12/31/2020

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