Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CST Thu Dec 31 2020 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 3 to Monday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move northeastward across the central Appalachians on Sunday and across New England on Monday. A cold front is forecast to move southward across the Florida Peninsula on Sunday, along which thunderstorm development may take place during the day. Behind the front, surface high pressure is forecast to settle in across much of the southern half of the nation. As a result, thunderstorm activity is expected to be minimized from Sunday night into Monday. ...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8... On Tuesday, the medium-range models are in good agreement, moving an upper-level trough quickly eastward into the southern Rockies. Under that scenario, moisture advection would increase across the Texas Coastal Plain. Marginally severe storms can not be ruled out over south-central Texas as the upper-level trough approaches the southern Plains Tuesday night. On Wednesday and Thursday, the upper-level trough is forecast to progress quickly eastward across the Gulf Coast States. At this time, moisture return is forecast to remain weak ahead of the trough. That would limit the potential for severe storms to coastal areas from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The current thinking is that any severe threat with this system will remain isolated. However, uncertainty is substantial at this range in the forecast period.
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