Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CST Thu Dec 31 2020

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Sunday/Day 3 to Monday/Day 5...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move northeastward across the
central Appalachians on Sunday and across New England on Monday. A
cold front is forecast to move southward across the Florida
Peninsula on Sunday, along which thunderstorm development may take
place during the day. Behind the front, surface high pressure is
forecast to settle in across much of the southern half of the
nation. As a result, thunderstorm activity is expected to be
minimized from Sunday night into Monday.

...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8...
On Tuesday, the medium-range models are in good agreement, moving an
upper-level trough quickly eastward into the southern Rockies. Under
that scenario, moisture advection would increase across the Texas
Coastal Plain. Marginally severe storms can not be ruled out over
south-central Texas as the upper-level trough approaches the
southern Plains Tuesday night.

On Wednesday and Thursday, the upper-level trough is forecast to
progress quickly eastward across the Gulf Coast States. At this
time, moisture return is forecast to remain weak ahead of the
trough. That would limit the potential for severe storms to coastal
areas from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The current thinking
is that any severe threat with this system will remain isolated.
However, uncertainty is substantial at this range in the forecast
period.

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