SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
THE GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Some risk for severe storms including isolated damaging wind and a
couple tornadoes will persist into the overnight over a portion of
the Gulf Coast states.

...Gulf Coast States...

Early this evening a stalled front extends from northern AL through
central MS, central LA to a weak surface low in southeast TX. This
front should lift slowly northward tonight as the surface low moves
northeast to near Memphis by 12Z Friday, with trailing cold front
extending southward through eastern MS. Despite presence of a moist
warm sector with upper 60s F dewpoints near the coast, robust,
organized thunderstorm development has not occurred so far. This has
been most likely due to the fact that deeper forcing for ascent
associated with the northward-moving upper low has remained north
and west of this region with a pronounced mid-level dry slot
spreading above the moist, warm sector. This dry slot and mid-level
subsidence inversion was sampled by the 00Z Slidell RAOB, which
indicates why most convection has remained relatively shallow with
sparse lightning flashes. Despite these limiting factors, some
threat for a few severe storms will persist into the overnight
within the broad warm advection regime over the southern half of the
Gulf Coast states. Convection developing in this regime will persist
within favorable vertical wind profiles for supercell structures,
through overall confidence in the severe threat is not particularly
high due to the very marginal thermodynamic environment.

..Dial.. 01/01/2021

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