SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Some risk for severe storms including isolated damaging wind and a couple tornadoes will persist into the overnight over a portion of the Gulf Coast states. ...Gulf Coast States... Early this evening a stalled front extends from northern AL through central MS, central LA to a weak surface low in southeast TX. This front should lift slowly northward tonight as the surface low moves northeast to near Memphis by 12Z Friday, with trailing cold front extending southward through eastern MS. Despite presence of a moist warm sector with upper 60s F dewpoints near the coast, robust, organized thunderstorm development has not occurred so far. This has been most likely due to the fact that deeper forcing for ascent associated with the northward-moving upper low has remained north and west of this region with a pronounced mid-level dry slot spreading above the moist, warm sector. This dry slot and mid-level subsidence inversion was sampled by the 00Z Slidell RAOB, which indicates why most convection has remained relatively shallow with sparse lightning flashes. Despite these limiting factors, some threat for a few severe storms will persist into the overnight within the broad warm advection regime over the southern half of the Gulf Coast states. Convection developing in this regime will persist within favorable vertical wind profiles for supercell structures, through overall confidence in the severe threat is not particularly high due to the very marginal thermodynamic environment. ..Dial.. 01/01/2021
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