SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Fri Jan 01 2021 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Saturday. A strong storm may graze the Outer Banks of North Carolina early Sunday morning. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper trough will move from the Southern Plains 12Z Saturday across the lower Mississippi Valley by 00Z and northeastward across the Appalachians overnight. Meanwhile, a fast-moving, compact shortwave trough will proceed east across New England during the day. At the surface, a cold front from the eastern wave will move southward toward the NC/SC border by 00Z, while another front lingers from central GA into the FL Panhandle. Preceding the stronger trough, temperatures aloft will not be particularly cool, which when combined with only lower to possibly mid 60s F dewpoints will result in little SBCAPE. Storms are expected to be ongoing near the front early Saturday across the eastern FL Panhandle, with further development of rain and thunderstorms across GA and the Carolinas during the day. Forecast soundings indicate very poor lapse rates, so much so that there may be minimal lightning. As such, severe weather is not expected there. Overnight and as the upper trough swings northeast across the Appalachians, dewpoints may rise slightly across far eastern NC in response to a weak low developing there. Point soundings near the coast suggest surface based parcels may not be far off, but the most likely scenario is for the stronger convection to remain offshore. If later model runs suggest better surface-based destabilization inland than currently forecast, low severe probabilities may be considered for far eastern NC as shear will become strong. ..Jewell.. 01/01/2021
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