SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Fri Jan 01 2021

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Saturday. A strong storm may graze
the Outer Banks of North Carolina early Sunday morning.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A strong upper trough will move from the Southern Plains 12Z
Saturday across the lower Mississippi Valley by 00Z and
northeastward across the Appalachians overnight. Meanwhile, a
fast-moving, compact shortwave trough will proceed east across New
England during the day.

At the surface, a cold front from the eastern wave will move
southward toward the NC/SC border by 00Z, while another front
lingers from central GA into the FL Panhandle. Preceding the
stronger trough, temperatures aloft will not be particularly cool,
which when combined with only lower to possibly mid 60s F dewpoints
will result in little SBCAPE. 

Storms are expected to be ongoing near the front early Saturday
across the eastern FL Panhandle, with further development of rain
and thunderstorms across GA and the Carolinas during the day.
Forecast soundings indicate very poor lapse rates, so much so that
there may be minimal lightning. As such, severe weather is not
expected there.

Overnight and as the upper trough swings northeast across the
Appalachians, dewpoints may rise slightly across far eastern NC in
response to a weak low developing there. Point soundings near the
coast suggest surface based parcels may not be far off, but the most
likely scenario is for the stronger convection to remain offshore.
If later model runs suggest better surface-based destabilization
inland than currently forecast, low severe probabilities may be
considered for far eastern NC as shear will become strong.

..Jewell.. 01/01/2021

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