SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 AM CST Fri Jan 01 2021

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning over eastern North
Carolina and southeast Virginia.

...Synopsis...
As one shortwave trough moves from the OH Valley into the Northeast,
another will move from the southern Plains into the southeast. Low
pressure over eastern NC at 12Z Sunday will deepen offshore during
the day, enabling the cold front to move quickly offshore. This
front will trail southwestward across FL, but forecast soundings
reveal poor lapse rates and drying winds from the west.

Meanwhile, heights will fall overnight across the Pacific Northwest
as a positive-tilt upper trough approached the WA/OR coasts. While a
few lightning flashes are possible in this region over the Pacific
Ocean, the greatest chance of isolated thunderstorms will be early
in the day over far eastern NC and southeastern VA.

...Eastern NC and southeastern VA...
While height falls with the shortwave trough will be focused from VA
northward, a moist air mass with 60-65 F dewpoints will exist ahead
of the front over eastern NC. Forecast soundings show parcels are
likely to remain elevated over land, the exception being the Outer
Banks. A small time window will exist between 12Z and 15Z Sunday for
storms in this area, with the bulk of the activity offshore. Shear
will be strong, but low-level winds will quickly veer to
southwesterly, reducing SRH over land. While the threat of an
isolated severe storm is non-zero, it remains highly conditional.
North of the low, minimal elevated instability may be present for a
few lightning flashes into VA.

..Jewell.. 01/01/2021

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