SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 AM CST Fri Jan 01 2021

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible from across
parts of South Carolina, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle.

...SE States...
A vigorous upper low is tracking northeastward toward the mid MS
Valley today, with an 80+ knot southwesterly mid level jet max
nosing into the central Appalachians.  The trailing cold front from
this system extends across middle TN and AL, with a pre-frontal line
of thunderstorms moving into GA.  These storms are expected to
persist this afternoon and spread eastward across the MRGL risk
area, with transient bowing structures posing some risk of gusty
winds or a brief tornado.  However, the glancing influence of the
upper system and weak CAPE suggest that the overall risk of
organized severe storms is marginal.

Other storms may develop this afternoon in vicinity of the wedge
front currently extending from central GA into SC.  This boundary
will lift slightly northward through the day.  Substantial cloud
cover and weak CAPE will limit severe risk in this area as well, but
if a storm can become rooted along the boundary it could produce
locally damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado.

..Hart/Dean.. 01/01/2021

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