SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Fri Jan 01 2021 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... While an upper low/trough moves rapidly across New England during the first half of the period, and a short-wave trough moves across the Intermountain West, the primary feature aloft will be a low/trough initially residing over the central and southern Plains. This feature will shift east-northeastward Saturday, crossing the middle and lower Mississippi Valley during the second half of the period and reaching the Midwest/Ohio Valley region late. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to lie across the Carolinas/Georgia/the Florida Panhandle at the start of the period, and should linger in place as the aforementioned upper system advances. As the southern fringe of this system brushes the Southeast, a weak surface frontal wave may evolve, moving across the eastern Carolinas through the second half of the period. Very weak instability is expected near and ahead of the surface front, given weak lapse rates. While ascent will be sufficient to support showers and a few thunderstorms, particularly as the front wave evolves, the lack of more favorable instability and only modest shear should preclude inland severe potential through the period. Elsewhere, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 01/01/2021
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