SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CST Fri Jan 01 2021

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Saturday.

...Discussion...
While an upper low/trough moves rapidly across New England during
the first half of the period, and a short-wave trough moves across
the Intermountain West, the primary feature aloft will be a
low/trough initially residing over the central and southern Plains. 
This feature will shift east-northeastward Saturday, crossing the
middle and lower Mississippi Valley during the second half of the
period and reaching the Midwest/Ohio Valley region late.

At the surface, a cold front is forecast to lie across the
Carolinas/Georgia/the Florida Panhandle at the start of the period,
and should linger in place as the aforementioned upper system
advances.  As the southern fringe of this system brushes the
Southeast, a weak surface frontal wave may evolve, moving across the
eastern Carolinas through the second half of the period.

Very weak instability is expected near and ahead of the surface
front, given weak lapse rates.  While ascent will be sufficient to
support showers and a few thunderstorms, particularly as the front
wave evolves, the lack of more favorable instability and only modest
shear should preclude inland severe potential through the period. 
Elsewhere, severe weather is not expected.

..Goss.. 01/01/2021

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